Nick Sleep and Qais Zakaria's June 2008 letter to Nomad partners, one of the letters in Nomad Investment Partnership Letters, 2001–2014.
From hated to despised signals market trouble
“We consider ourselves contrarian, value-based investors. Ordinarily what we are buying is hated and reasonable value. When investments go from hated and reasonable to despised and cheap something is normally up in the markets.”
Dilution risk is worst at market troughs
“Dilution risk occurs when companies issue equity at less than the firm is worth. This risk is always with us but is most pernicious at stock market troughs.”
Doubt undermines protection against dilution
“Investors can protect themselves from [dilution risk] by putting in their proportional share in any new capital raising. The problem comes when investors start to question the size of the capital raising.”
Dilution risk is rooted in doubt
“Dilution risk comes from doubt about one’s original analysis.”
Short-term owners of permanent capital are weak
“The shorts know the institutions are weak minded. And the institutions themselves know they are weak. They are weak because, although equity is permanent capital, the owners of the equity are short term oriented.”
Fund firms gather assets rather than invest
“The business model at many firms is not to make investments, to research and provide permanent capital; instead, the business model is to gather and retain assets.”
Liquidity is prized by the insecure
“We all know [having owners swap seats] is pursued in the name of the efficient allocation of capital and liquidity, but it fails at the former and the latter is prized by the insecure.”
Equity is the only permanent capital
“The point of equity is that it is the only permanent capital in the balance sheet.”
Momentum prices rise because they rose
“In effect prices rise just because they have already risen.”
Vivid mistakes lead people to over-correct
“Psychologists argue that the last mistake is so vivid that, if anything, we tend to over - correct, as anyone with a whisky-hangover will tell you.”
Ten times revenue implies a decade of dividends
“At ten times revenues, to give you a ten-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for ten straight years in dividends.” — Scott McNealy
Momentum investing is emotional investing
“We can all do momentum investing, but it is emotional investing and I just don’t think it is that intelligent, or profitable.”