No idea where markets go next
“I am certainly not going to predict what general business or the stock market are going to do in the next year or two since I don't have the faintest idea.”
Investing
Warren Buffett's July 1962 letter to Buffett Partnership partners, one of the letters in Buffett Partnership Letters, 1957–1970.
Short periods exaggerate chance fluctuations
“Please keep in mind my continuing admonition that six-months' or even one-year's results are not to be taken too seriously. Short periods of measurement exaggerate chance fluctuations in performance.”
Most stock investors roughly match the Dow
“To the extent that funds are invested in common stocks, whether the manner of investment be through investment companies, investment counselors, bank trust departments, or do-it-yourself, our belief is that the overwhelming majority will achieve results roughly comparable to the Dow.”