Risk management cannot start mid-crisis
The author argues that protection put in place only once trouble arrives comes too late. "Just in time risk management does not work": safeguards have to be built before they are needed.
Business
Conflicting signals mark structural change
When economic and market data keep contradicting each other, the author reads it as a sign that the underlying system is being rearranged, not as random noise. Investors who keep interpreting these signals through old relationships risk misreading what they mean.
Reserve build-ups lift many local assets
In the author's account, when an emerging economy piles up international reserves, almost any investment there gains from several forces at once. Country risk falls, more available capital pushes interest rates down, and the currency may rise.
Long horizons create value-minded buyers
According to the author, state investment funds that must invest for the long term naturally become value investors. Because they need not sell in a hurry, they can buy riskier assets when those are cheap, which gives them a stabilising role in markets.