3 ideas
Unlike mature markets, emerging technologies carry unresolved technical, market, and standards uncertainty that break conventional planning. Managers must act while the eventual shape of the market is still unknown.
Firms should treat technology bets as options, making small staged commitments that preserve the right to expand or abandon as uncertainty resolves. This limits downside while keeping upside open.
Because the future cannot be forecast, managers build multiple plausible scenarios and craft strategies robust across them. Planning shifts from prediction to preparedness.