When Prophecy Fails

Leon Festinger

4 ideas

1. The Seekers' failed December flood prophecy

   In 1954 a Chicago-area housewife, called Marian Keech in the book (real name Dorothy Martin), relayed messages she said came from beings on the planet Clarion predicting a world-ending flood before dawn on December 21. Followers quit jobs, gave away possessions, and gathered to await a flying saucer rescue at midnight. When nothing happened, Keech announced that the group's faith had saved the world, and members who had previously avoided publicity began calling newspapers and proselytizing.

2. Disconfirmation intensifies belief under five conditions

   The authors argue that a clearly disproven belief will be held more fervently, not abandoned, when five conditions hold. The belief must be held with deep conviction, the believer must have taken hard-to-undo actions committing to it, and the belief must be specific enough for events to refute it. The refutation must be undeniable and recognized, and the believer must have social support from fellow believers.

3. Proselytizing as dissonance reduction strategy

   When evidence refutes a belief, the believer can reduce the resulting discomfort by recruiting others to it, because each new convert serves as social proof that the belief must be correct. As a result, groups may become most evangelistic immediately after their predictions fail, as a way to replace the lost physical confirmation with social confirmation.

4. Isolation versus group support after refutation

   The same disconfirmation had opposite effects depending on the believer's social situation. Members who waited out the failed prophecy alone at home, such as in Collegeville, mostly abandoned or weakened their belief.

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