Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond

Bruce Greenwald, Judd Kahn, Paul Sonkin and Michael van Biema

3 ideas

  1. Three-step valuation ordered by reliability

    Value a business first by its assets (reproduction cost), then by earnings power value (current sustainable earnings divided by the cost of capital, assuming no growth), and only last by growth. The order runs from the most certain information to the most speculative, so the least reliable estimate never anchors the valuation.

  2. Growth adds value only behind barriers

    Growth creates value only when returns on new capital exceed the cost of capital, and competitive entry drives those returns down to the cost of capital unless barriers to entry protect them. Without a franchise, growth is worth zero or less, so paying for growth in a competitive industry is paying for nothing.

  3. Asset-earnings gap reveals franchise or mismanagement

    Compare reproduction-cost asset value with earnings power value. If earnings power clearly exceeds asset value, something such as captive customers, economies of scale, or cost advantages must be stopping competitors from entering, and that barrier should be identified and tested. If earnings power falls below asset value, management is destroying value, and the investment case depends on the assets being redeployed.

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