Strategy: The Logic of War and Peace

6 ideas

1. Strategy follows a paradoxical, not linear, logic

   In any contest against a thinking, reacting adversary, ordinary linear logic breaks down, because the opponent adapts to whatever you do. Actions that would be efficient and sensible in a non-adversarial setting, such as the shortest route or the most obvious concentration of force, become predictable and are therefore met and defeated. Deliberately choosing the costly, inefficient option can win because it is the one the enemy has not guarded against.

2. The bad road is the good road

   A commander who must choose between a good road and a bad one may do better on the bad one, since the enemy will expect and defend the good one. The attacker gives up efficiency in movement to gain surprise, which cuts down the resistance he meets. Accepting self-inflicted friction becomes worthwhile when it buys less friction from the enemy.

3. Culminating point of success and reversal

   A victorious advance undermines itself: supply lines lengthen, forces spread thin, and alarmed third parties join the other side. The defeated side meanwhile falls back on its bases and grows more concentrated. Unless the winner recognizes when to stop, continued success produces its own reversal.

4. Five vertical levels of strategy

   Strategy works at five levels at once: technical (weapons and equipment), tactical (combat between small units), operational (combined maneuver of formations), theatre strategy (the whole campaign across a region), and grand strategy (the interplay of military, diplomatic, economic, and political means between states). Each level has its own form of the paradoxical logic. Results at a lower level can be cancelled or overturned by what happens at a higher one.

5. Higher levels override lower-level brilliance

   Excellent technology, tactics, or operational skill cannot rescue a flawed grand strategy, because outcomes at the top level decide what lower-level victories are worth. Judging a side by its battlefield performance can mislead badly about how the conflict will end.

6. Peace through preparation for war

   Coexistence produces paradoxes too: visible readiness for war can keep peace by deterring attack, and weakness adopted as a way to reassure others can invite aggression. Defensive measures and technical countermeasures set off counter-countermeasures, so any lasting advantage wears away through the adversary's reaction. There is no stable superiority, only a continuing cycle of action and response.

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