Loss aversion drives the disposition effect
They hold losers indefinitely to avoid admitting a loss. The result is a portfolio that systematically cuts its best performers and keeps its worst.
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They hold losers indefinitely to avoid admitting a loss. The result is a portfolio that systematically cuts its best performers and keeps its worst.
When the securities scam was exposed, the market collapsed and late entrants were left holding stocks bought at prices no earnings could justify. The episode shows how a rising market is itself taken as evidence of value.
During the dot-com boom, Indian 'ICE' stocks (information, communication, entertainment) traded at extreme valuations. Companies renamed or repositioned themselves as tech firms to capture the premium, and investors bought narratives instead of cash flows. When the bubble burst, most of these stocks lost the bulk of their value and many never recovered.
Investors put money into separate mental buckets, such as bonus money, a dividend or house money from past gains, and treat each bucket with a different level of risk. Gains are gambled more freely than savings even though every rupee is identical. Seeing the portfolio as one pool removes this inconsistency.
Investors follow the crowd because being wrong together causes less regret than being wrong alone. By the time an idea is popular enough to feel safe, its price already reflects the optimism, so crowd-following means buying high and selling low. Returns come from acting against prevailing sentiment when fear or greed is at an extreme.
Most market participants react to short-term news, quarterly results and daily price moves, which creates mispricings for anyone willing to wait. An individual investor's real advantage over institutions and traders is not better information but the patience to hold through volatility. Short-term price noise is best seen as an opportunity, not a signal.