Retirement Planning Guidebook

Wade Pfau

3 ideas

  1. Sequence-of-returns risk amplifies early losses

    When a retiree withdraws from a volatile portfolio, the order of returns matters, not just their average: losses in the first years force the sale of more shares at depressed prices. That permanently shrinks the base available for later recovery. Two retirees with identical average returns can therefore end with vastly different outcomes, and the retirement date becomes the point of greatest vulnerability.

  2. Probability-based versus safety-first income styles

    Retirement income approaches split along two axes. Probability-based versus safety-first asks whether you rely on expected market returns or contractual guarantees. Optionality versus commitment asks whether you keep assets liquid or lock them into irreversible income sources. Mapping a retiree's preferences onto these axes yields distinct strategies: total-return investing, time-segmented buckets, risk-wrap with annuities, or an income floor built from bonds and annuities topped with upside investments.

  3. Delaying Social Security buys cheap longevity insurance

    Each year a retiree postpones claiming Social Security benefits past full retirement age raises the lifetime inflation-adjusted payment, until age 70. The implied payout rate on the assets spent to bridge the gap is higher than what a commercial annuity offers. Delay is therefore usually the most cost-effective way to secure guaranteed income that lasts for life, especially for the higher earner in a married couple, whose benefit becomes the survivor benefit.

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