Pitch the Perfect Investment

Paul Sonkin and Paul Johnson

3 ideas

  1. Mispricing requires a catalyst-closed information gap

    A pitch is only a real opportunity if you can name why the market price is wrong and how that gap will close. The market is using incomplete or wrongly weighted information, your variant perception is what corrects it, and the catalyst is the event that makes other investors revise their estimates. Without the catalyst, you have a disagreement, not an edge.

  2. Early and wrong look identical

    A position can be correct yet sit unrecognized for a long time. During that period the price action is indistinguishable from being mistaken, so price movement alone cannot confirm or refute a thesis. The analyst has to define in advance what evidence would show the thesis is broken, separate from what the stock does.

  3. Pitches must fit the listener's limited attention

    Portfolio managers are time-starved and hear many ideas, so they filter quickly for reasons to say no. A pitch that leads with a clear answer, the few factors that drive value, and the key risk will be heard. An exhaustive data dump gets passed over even when the analysis behind it is sound.

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