Mosaic

Mohnish Pabrai

5 ideas

  1. Patel immigrants build a motel dynasty

    Whole families lived on site and did the cleaning, desk and maintenance work themselves, which cut labor costs so far that they could undercut competitors and still profit. They reinvested the cash flow into more motels, and within a few decades Indian-Americans owned a large share of all U.S. motels, built from low-cost, low-risk purchases of existing businesses rather than new ventures.

  2. Kelly-style sizing for concentrated bets

    The Kelly criterion sets the fraction of capital to stake on a bet as edge divided by odds. The result is a portfolio of a few heavily weighted positions, with most of the time spent waiting for the rare mispriced opportunity.

  3. Heads I win, tails I lose little

    The ideal investment has an asymmetric payoff: a large gain if things go right and a small loss if they go wrong. Markets tend to mistake uncertainty (a wide range of possible outcomes) for risk (the chance of permanent capital loss). They therefore underprice businesses whose futures are murky but whose downside is protected by assets or cash flow.

  4. Intrinsic value bought with margin of safety

    A business is worth the discounted sum of the cash it will produce over its remaining life, whatever its stock is quoting today. The investor estimates that value conservatively, for simple businesses within their circle of competence, and buys only at a steep discount to it. That gap absorbs estimation errors and bad luck while leaving room for the price to converge upward toward value.

  5. Shameless cloning of proven investors

    Originality is not the goal in investing, returns are, so the rational move is to study and copy the holdings and methods of investors with long, verified records, such as Buffett and Munger. Cloning cuts down the search for ideas and borrows the judgment of better analysts. The investor still has to verify each idea independently before committing capital.

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