Forecasting is mostly seeing
The main mental work in forecasting weather is visual: spotting patterns in maps, charts and displays. Expertise grows as a trained eye that recognises what an image means, not mainly as a store of calculations.
Leaning on models stunts skill
Forecasters who simply accept what the computer models or handy rules of thumb say stop growing as professionals. In one study, forecasters who had become too dependent on model output actually forecast worse because of it.
Experts reason differently, not just faster
Expert forecasters don't follow the same steps as beginners more quickly; they use different and more complex approaches and often think more abstractly. They also keep a sharp sense of what the person receiving the forecast actually needs.