Cover of How to Decide

How to Decide

Annie Duke

3 ideas

  1. Resulting: judging decisions by outcomes

    Resulting is the error of inferring decision quality from outcome quality, as if a good result proves a good choice and a bad result proves a bad one. Because any single outcome reflects both the decision and luck, you must evaluate the process — the information available, the options considered, the probabilities estimated — separately from how things turned out. Otherwise you learn the wrong lessons from both wins and losses.

  2. Kill criteria set before you start

    Before committing to a course of action, write down specific states and dates that would trigger quitting: 'if by date X we have not reached Y, we stop.' Setting these in advance, while you are not yet invested, counters sunk-cost thinking and escalation of commitment, which make it nearly impossible to judge objectively once you are inside the losing effort. A good criterion pairs a measurable state with a deadline, so it cannot drift as you rationalize.

  3. The quitting coach who isn't you

    Because the person inside a pursuit experiences losses as more painful and identity-threatening than an observer does, they systematically persist too long. A quitting coach is an outside person who sees your situation clearly, cares about your long-term welfare, and has explicit permission to tell you hard truths about when to stop. The coach supplies the detached view you cannot generate for yourself while you are invested.

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