Existential risk
Ord defines existential risks as those that would permanently destroy humanity's long-term potential. They are distinct from ordinary catastrophes because their harm is irreversible.
The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity
6 ideas
We live at the Precipice
He argues humanity's technological power now outstrips its wisdom to manage it. This makes the present century uniquely dangerous for self-caused extinction.
A budget of the major risks
Ord estimates each risk in turn: natural threats like asteroids and supervolcanoes are small, while engineered pandemics and unaligned AI dominate the coming century. The estimates prioritize where attention should go.
Longtermism and the moral stakes
Because vast numbers of future people could exist, safeguarding the future carries enormous moral weight. Protecting long-term potential becomes a central priority of our era.
A one-in-six century
Ord estimates roughly a one-in-six chance of existential catastrophe this century. The figure is meant to show the risk is high enough to demand serious action now.
Securing our potential
He proposes first reaching 'existential security,' then a 'long reflection' on values. Only after that should humanity commit to a long-term trajectory.