6 ideas
Experts faced with a decision don't compare options side by side; they recognize the situation as a type they've seen before and immediately generate one plausible action. They then mentally simulate that single action to check whether it works, and only move to a second option if the simulation reveals problems.
Intuition is not mystical; it is the brain's ability to match the current situation against thousands of stored patterns acquired through experience. What feels like a sudden hunch is actually rapid, unconscious recognition of cues that the conscious mind cannot articulate.
Before acting, experts run a mental movie of how a chosen course of action will unfold over time, watching for points where it might break down. This simulation, rather than statistical comparison, is the primary mechanism by which skilled people evaluate whether an option will work.
Expertise consists largely of knowing which subtle cues matter and noticing when expected cues are absent or inconsistent. A sense that 'something is wrong' arises when the situation violates the pattern the expert unconsciously anticipated, signaling that attention is needed.
A fire commander ordered his crew out of a burning building moments before the floor collapsed, attributing the call to ESP. Analysis revealed he had unconsciously read cues — the fire's quietness, the room's unusual heat — that signaled the fire was beneath them, demonstrating that intuition is decoded experience.
Instead of asking a team to critique a plan, imagine the plan has already failed catastrophically and ask everyone to explain why. This prospective hindsight bypasses the social pressure toward optimism and surfaces concerns people would otherwise withhold.